298 / 2018-05-02 11:26:14

The risk prediction model for coal seam floor water bursting based on AHP and FSPA

Floor water brusting;,Risk prediction model;,Analytic hierarchy processes,;Fuzzy set pair,Maximum subordinate degree principle,;Coal mine

矿山动力灾害 > 突水

The coal seam floor water bursting accidents can cause huge economic losses and serious casualties. To reduce the occurrence of coal seam floor water bursting accidents, the article presents a risk prediction model based on the Analytic hierarchy processes (AHP) and Fuzzy set pair analysis method (FSPA). Firstly, the risk prediction index system for coal seam floor water bursting is constructed from the four aspects: geological structure, water-resisting layer, hydro geological conditions and mining conditions; Secondly, the coal seam floor water bursting risk is divided into four grades, namely: ‘‘less water bursting”; ‘‘general water bursting”, ‘‘more easily to water bursting” and ‘‘extremely easy to water bursting”; Thirdly, the fuzzy connection degree of each index is calculated by comparing the actual value with risk grade standard; and the weight of each index is determined by Analytic hierarchy processes (AHP), then the fuzzy connection degree of the sample can be calculated; Finally, the maximum subordinate degree principle is used to determine the risk grade for coal seam floor water bursting. The case study was done on the basis of research in a mine area in Tai’an. Research display that the risk prediction results for coal seam floor water bursting based on the Analytic hierarchy processes (AHP) and Fuzzy set pair analysis (FSPA) can be basically consistent with the actual status in the mine area, so it can be applied in predict the coal seam floor water bursting risk