709 / 2019-04-24 13:54:51

Research on Demand Forecast of Power Grid Emergency Materials Based on CBR Method Improved by Information Update

case-based reasoning,emergency events,fuzzy information,Information Update

The grid emergency caused by natural disasters has the characteristics of complexity, urgency, and information incompleteness, making it difficult to make emergency material dispatching. Based on the study of historical fault-meteorology-repair statistics of power grids, this paper proposes a CBR (case-based reasoning) method for the demand of emergency materials in power grids, combining intuitionistic fuzzy sets with case-based reasoning, considering meteorological elements, geological elements, and accidents. The characteristic factors are corrected with the information update, the iterative calculation of the prediction process is realized, and the material demand is accurately predicted.The example shows that this method can accurately predict the demand for emergency materials in grid emergencies.