85 / 2019-09-15 16:46:20

The relative transmissibility of shigellosis among male and female individuals in Hubei Province, China: a modelling study.

Transmissibility,Shigellosis,Mathematical model,gender

Shigellosis has been a heavy disease burden in China. However, its transmission features remains unclear among male (m) and female (f) individuals. We collected data from cases of shigellosis reported to the Hubei Province Centers for Disease Control from 2005 to 2017. A sex-based Susceptible–Exposed–Infectious/Asymptomatic–Recovered-Water (SEIARW) model was applied to explore the dataset.Two indicators, secondary attack rate (SAR) and relative ratio of SAR among male and female, were developed to assess the relative transmissibility of different genders. From 2005 to 2017, 130770 shigellosis cases (including 73,981male cases and 56,789 female cases) were reported in Hubei province. SEIARW model had a great fitting effect with the data of shigellosis (P < 0.001). Our simulation of “knock-out” revealed that, when interrupting transmission from female to male (βfm = 0), the number of simulated cases decreased most. The median value of shigellosis transmission for SARmm was 2.3225  10-8 (Range: 1.7574  10-8 – 3.8565  10-8), SARmf was 2.5729  10-8 (Range: 1.3772  10-8 – 3.2773  10-8), SARfm was 2.7630  10-8 (Range: 1.8387  10-8 – 4.2638  10-8) and SARff was 2.1061  10-8(Range: 1.0201  10-8 – 3.2140  10-8). The median of relative ratio of SAR was that mm versus (vs) mf was 0.93 (Range: 0.75 – 1.47), mm vs fm was 0.90 (Range: 0.41 – 1.81), mm vs ff was 1.07 (Range: 0.55 – 2.93), mf vs fm was 0.99 (Range: 0.32 – 1.25), mf vs ff was 1.17 (Range: 0.43 – 3.21) and ff vs fm was 0.75 (Range: 0.35 – 1.06). Transmissibility of shigellosis is different among male and female individuals. The transmissibility between the genders is higher than that within the gender, especially for female to transmit to male. Most effective control measures (case isolation, treatment, etc.) can be achieved for female.