Estimate of Poverty Reduction Effects by the Transport Infrastructure and Industry Development Based on System Dynamics
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更新:2022-07-07 09:19:32
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摘要
This study aims to scientifically measure the impact of transport infrastructure and industry development on the poverty reduction effect. Based on the spatial panel data that characterize the level of the transport industry, we firstly use the SPSS、Econometrics and other tools to quantitatively analyze the correlation coefficients between the indicators; and then we established the poverty reduction effect model of transport development by the system dynamics; Finally, we make sensitivity analysis of four indicators related to the development of transport industry. The findings indicated that: The road network density, the added value of logistics industry, the added value of postal services, and total retail sales of social consumer goods had a significant effect on regional poverty reduction, and the density of the road network has the largest contribution to the regional poverty reduction effect. When the road network density increases by 10%, regional GDP will increase by 25%; When the retail sales of consumer goods increase by 50%, the regional GDP increases by 20%; When the added value of logistics industry and postal services is doubled, the regional GDP will be increased by 14% and 9% respectively. In the development of the regional economy with high quality, scientifically and rationally increasing the density of road network, coordinating the layout of transport infrastructure and regional industries will help the region’s poverty reduction effect.
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