Understanding the mechanisms that influence changes in ecosystem services (ESs) is critical to the sustainable management of ecosystems. However, existing studies ignore the different importance of influencing factors of ESs in different periods and do not consider the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of influence factors. In this study, we first quantified six ESs for the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) and Pearl River Delta (PRD) in 2000 and 2020 based on remote sensing data, including water yield, grain production, climate regulation, air purification, biodiversity, and recreation. Then, eight factors influencing ESs were selected from natural and human perspectives, and random forest was used to determine the importance level of factors influencing ESs. Finally, the GTWR model was used to explore the spatial and temporal differentiation of factors influencing ESs. The results showed that the spatial variation of the six ESs in the YRD and PRD was irregular from 2000 to 2020. In 2000, natural factors (forest, topography, climate) dominated the regional ESs, while in 2020 human factors (population, economy, human activities) gradually replaced the dominance of natural factors on ESs. The spatial and temporal heterogeneity of multiple influence factors on ESs in the YRD and PRD is significant, and we interpret the ecological implications in detail and propose a series of policy recommendations. The results of this study could provide an important reference for scientific guidance to enhance ecological sustainability in developed regions.

Ecosystem services,Spatiotemporal differentiation,Influencing factors,Random forest,Geographically and temporally weighted regression