218 / 2023-09-26 23:47:26

Simulation of land use change and its ecological risk prediction in China

land use change

In recent years, climate change has led to a significant increase in natural disaster risks on a global scale, posing a huge threat to both humanity and ecosystems. In addition to natural disasters and climate change, land use changes driven by human activities can also increase ecological risks by reducing the supply of ecosystem services to humans. However, compared to the mature risk assessment frameworks in the field of natural disasters, the ecological risks associated with land use changes still represent a relatively new concept, with unclear definitions and assessment methods. Therefore, this study proposes a new framework for assessing ecological risks associated with land use changes, drawing on the classic framework of disaster risk assessment. The results indicate that the ecological risks in the study area are predominantly at a medium-low risk level, accounting for 80.48% of the total. The low-risk areas follow, comprising 11.52%. The areas with medium risk and medium-high risk have similar proportions, accounting for 3.83% and 3.96% respectively, while the high-risk areas only make up 0.2%. In terms of spatial distribution, the medium-low risk level dominates, with low-risk areas mainly located in the border areas of Xinjiang, Gansu, and Inner Mongolia, as well as the southern and eastern edges of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The medium-risk and medium-high risk areas are mainly concentrated in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, while the high-risk areas are primarily clustered in the urban areas along the southern edge. This study identifies different types of ecological risk zones to develop corresponding policies and measures for risk management, aiming to ensure the sustainability of natural ecosystem services and maximize socio-economic and ecological benefits.