22 / 2023-12-18 02:09:20

Flood Risk Sustainable Management Plan from a Community Perspective in Pao River Basin, Venezuela

sustainable risk management plan,tropical country,community perspective

This study proposes as a general objective to formulate a flood risk management plan for the Pao River basin, Carabobo state, Venezuela, from a community perspective. Methodology involved seven stages: 1) spatiotemporal characterization of land uses in the Pao river basin, using images from the Landsat group of satellites (L5TM, L7TM and L8OLI) in the period 1980 - 2018, classified by ENVI V. 4.7 and ArcGIS V.10.0, 2) description of hydrometeorological and social variables using monthly records of 227 pluviographs in the period 1980-2000 collected by the Ministry of Natural Resources. The daily precipitation was collected using 25 pluviographs, evaporation through 25 A-type tubs and 25 evapotranspiration recorders, from stations of the National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology in the period 2015-2018. The social variables were described by carrying out a survey of the population in flood-prone areas, 3) the calibration was applied to geostatistical models for the rain-runoff process, 4) the validation of the rain-runoff model was carried out by comparing three levels of soil moisture, 5) the flood risk was estimated using a method proposed by the Center for Hydrological and Environmental Research of the University of Carabobo, 7) the design of the sustainable flood risk management plan involved flood risk prediction, characterization of flood risk scenarios, emergency, inventory of resources, organization of response actions. The results of the research show high dynamics in the variation of plant cover and agricultural use in the Pao River basin attributed to the temporal pattern of dry and rainy seasons in Venezuela, and low dynamics in urban use in the period 1980- 2018. Geostatistical models for field-measured rain-run process variables led to the distance range where there is significant autocorrelation of variables and lack of anisotropy. The rain-runoff process was validated through the infiltration variable, resulting in values consistent with precipitation temporal patterns and changes in land uses, flood risk maps reproduced the pattern associated with the probability of occurrence of effective precipitation finding high risk in rural areas where there are no flood event control works (natural coverages) and low to medium in urban areas. Flood risk management plan provides flood risk maps, evacuation route maps, structural and non-structural  measures assessment; leading to the proposing alternatives of articulated corrective and preventive intervention to sustainable development and territorial ordering.