摘要详情
23 / 2023-12-18 02:27:29
Spatiotemporal Prediction of Water Balance in Urama River Basin, Venezuela
spatio-temporal prediction,water balance,tropical basins
摘要待审
A novelty spatial and temporal forecast method of water balance variables in Urama basin wetland, Venezuela is presented in this paper. The methodology consists of two stages: 1. Compilation of the information, using meteorological data on precipitation (rainfall) and evaporation from 73 climate stations, Landsat images and a digital elevation model for the study basin. 2. Processing the information: a) modelling the spatial statistical forecast; b) forecast model; and c) forecasting time series of water balance variables. The advantage of the method is to use available data to forecast the water balance variables by means of statistical spatial prediction models, selecting those with a seasonal trend approximating the observed values. Correlation and determination coefficients were greater than 0.99 indicating satisfactory predictions, so that the method, is appropriate to reproduce the spatio-temporal profile of future periods to be used for planning sustainable management of wetlands. The study showed the inter-annual variability of water balance variable during the time series 1986-2000 with forecasts for future years 2020 and 2030. A pattern was presented in the SPPM of the southern, and northern regions, associated with the maximum and minimum values of each year, where precipitation and evaporation was high in the southern region, (cloud wet forest), while in the northern region, (tropical dry forest) the wetland area, low values were presented. For the period 1986-2000, the semivariances were smaller at a shorter distance and increase at a greater distance to stabilize. The results showed that the pattern follows the behavior of the annual variability of the precipitation and evaporation of regions of Venezuela, in comparison with studies developed in other areas, influenced by the Intertropical Convergence Zone on the genesis of precipitation (rainy season); and others dominated by the absence of these (dry season). The knowledge about these climatic variables of water balance, allows to obtain a much more assertive approach when making strategic decisions in wetland areas, where the service of production of potable water in high areas of the basin and the agricultural service in the lowlands, makes that are very vulnerable to the influence of persistent dry periods. This leads to the analysis of land management, determining its performance in periods of low rainfall and high evaporation, so that actions can be directed at controlling land use and activities such as deforestation and the agricultural sector in the region, which affect biodiversity and wetland services such as water production.
重要日期
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会议日期
10月14日
2024
至10月17日
2024
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09月30日 2024
初稿截稿日期
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10月17日 2024
注册截止日期
主办单位
国际水利与环境工程学会亚太地区分会
承办单位
长江水利委员会长江科学院
四川大学
四川大学
联系方式
- Congress Secretariat
- se******@iahr-apd2024.com
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