Sea-level rise through to 2050 is fixed. Singapore is looking at 14 to 35 centimetres of sea-level rise through the middle of the century, given the long-drawn impact of global warming on the oceans and ice sheets. Beyond 2050, sea-level rise becomes increasingly susceptible to the world’s emission choices. If countries choose to continue their current paths, greenhouse gas emissions will likely result in ~3°C of warming by 2100, and a sea-level rise of up to 1.15 metres in Singapore. Rapid ice sheet loss from Greenland and Antarctica could lead to a sea-level rise approaching 2.12 metres by 2150.

Using case studies from the Southeast Asia Sea Level (SEA2) program from Singapore and Southeast Asia, we illustrate the ways in which current methodologies and historical and geological data sources can constrain future projections, and how accurate projections can motivate the development of new sea-level research questions to mitigate and adapt to climate change. For example, we estimate the influences of vertical land motion on sea-level projections for major cities. We show that cities experiencing the fastest rates of land subsidence are concentrated in Asia and these cities also have more variable VLM than assumed by the IPCC[1]. Further, we project the impacts of tropical cyclones in a warming climate. We project the cities of Hai Phong (Vietnam), Yangon (Myanmar), and Bangkok (Thailand) will have increases in peak tropical cyclone intensity and durations[2]. And finally, we focus on the implications of rising sea levels to coastal ecosystems. With 3°C of warming, nearly all the mangrove forests and coral reef islands would be beyond their sea-level rise tipping point for survival[3].

sea level change, Southeast Asia