China coasts facing more tropical cyclone risks during the second decaying summer of double-year La Niña events
编号:910 访问权限:仅限参会人 更新:2024-12-31 09:25:01 浏览:197次 口头报告

报告开始:2025年01月16日 14:15(Asia/Shanghai)

报告时间:15min

所在会场:[S6] Session 6-Tropical Cyclone-Ocean Interactions: From Weather to Climate Scales [S6-2] Tropical Cyclone-Ocean Interactions: From Weather to Climate Scales

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摘要
Long-lasting La Niña events (including double-year and triple-year La Niña events) have become more frequent in recent years. How the multi-year La Niña events affect tropical cyclone (TC) activities in the western North Pacific (WNP) and whether they differ from single-year La Niña events are unknown. Here we show that TCs are more active over the far-WNP (FWNP, 110°–150°E), leading to marked high risks at China coasts during the second decaying summer of double-year La Niña events. The anomalous TC activities are directly related to the enhanced cyclonic anomaly over the FWNP, possibly a result of large-scale remote forcing initiated by the tropical North Atlantic (TNA) cooling. The persistent TNA cooling from the decaying winter to summer of double-year La Niña events drives westerlies over the Indo-western Pacific through Kelvin waves, which induce the cooling over the north Indian Ocean via the wind-evaporation-sea surface temperature effect, favoring the asymmetric heat distribution pattern and stimulating an anomalous vertical circulation over the eastern Indian Ocean to FWNP. The cooling over the north Indian Ocean also excites Gill responses, magnifying the TNAinduced westerlies and boosting the anomalous vertical circulation, and thus gives rise to the strong cyclonic circulation anomaly over the FWNP in summer. We suggest that the key point of the process is the strong TNA cooling related to the persistent negative Pacific-North American pattern (PNA) and positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) while double-year La Niña events decay, distinct from the rapid decline of PNA and NAO during single-year La Niña events. The work provides a unique perspective on understanding TC activities over the WNP related to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation.
关键词
tropical cyclone, multi-year La Niña
报告人
Xi Luo
Dr. School of Marine Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University;South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences

稿件作者
Xi Luo School of Marine Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University;South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Lei Yang South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Qihua Peng Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California
Dongxiao Wang School of Marine Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University
Sheng Chen South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Johnny Chan School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong;Asia-Pacific Typhoon Collaborative Research Center
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重要日期
  • 会议日期

    01月13日

    2025

    01月17日

    2025

  • 09月27日 2024

    初稿截稿日期

  • 01月17日 2025

    注册截止日期

主办单位
State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science, Xiamen University
承办单位
State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science, Xiamen University
Department of Earth Sciences, National Natural Science Foundation of China
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