Suppressive MJO in April 2014 downgraded the 2014/15 El Niño
编号:506 访问权限:仅限参会人 更新:2025-03-31 10:15:37 浏览:24次 张贴报告

报告开始:2025年04月18日 08:43(Asia/Shanghai)

报告时间:1min

所在会场:[PO] 墙报 [po] 墙报

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摘要
The sudden halting of the extreme 2014/15 El Niño expected by many was attributed to the absence of westerly wind bursts (WWBs) in late spring and early summer 2014 in previous works, yet the cause of the lack of WWBs was overlooked. Using the ERA5 reanalysis and IBTrACS dataset, as well as a set of coupled model experiments, we showed that the absence of WWBs in May efficiently downgraded the intensity of the 2014/15 El Niño from a moderate to a weak event, and was closely associated with a strong suppressive MJO originating from the central tropical Indian Ocean in mid-April 2014. The suppressive MJO underwent two pathways once passing through the Maritime Continent in early May. Along the eastward pathway, the strong suppressive MJO prevailed over the western-central equatorial Pacific, directly prohibiting the occurrence of WWBs at the equator via inducing equatorial easterly anomaly. Along the northeastward pathway, the downward motions with relative dry air and strong vertical zonal wind shear associated with the suppressive MJO suppressed the activity of the tropical cyclones in the northwestern tropical Pacific, another source of WWBs. Our results indicate that the contributions of MJO to the development of El Niño from both the direct and indirect ways should be taken into account for improving El Niño prediction.
关键词
tropical cyclone,MJO,El Niño-Southern Oscillation
报告人
王杰
博士生 上海交通大学

稿件作者
王杰 上海交通大学
陈大可 上海交通大学;自然资源部第二海洋研究所
连涛 自然资源部第二海洋研究所
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重要日期
  • 会议日期

    04月17日

    2025

    04月21日

    2025

  • 04月10日 2025

    初稿截稿日期

  • 04月20日 2025

    注册截止日期

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中国科学院大气物理研究所
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