Analysis of Senyar-Induced Flood-Landslide Compound Hazards in Aceh, Indonesia Using XGBoost - SHAP model
编号:85 访问权限:仅限参会人 更新:2026-07-31 15:36:27 浏览:10次 口头报告

报告开始:2026年08月11日 17:10(Asia/Hong_Kong)

报告时间:15min

所在会场:[S8] Session 8 Mechanism, Risk, and Resilience for Disaster Chains [S8] Session 8 Day 3

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摘要
Floods and landslides frequently occur as compound hazards in tropical regions, causing severe socio-economic losses. In November 2025, Tropical Cyclone Senyar triggered widespread floods and landslides across Aceh Province, Indonesia. To identify hazard-prone areas and understand the underlying driving mechanisms, the interpretable susceptibility models using Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) are developed based on this compound hazard event. The optimized XGBoost models achieve excellent performance, with AUC values of 0.9712 and 0.9501 and AP values of 0.9589 and 0.8654 for flood and landslide susceptibility, respectively. The susceptibility maps reveal distinct spatial patterns, with flood-prone areas concentrated in low-lying coastal plains and landslide-prone areas mainly distributed in inland mountainous regions. SHAP analysis reveals that elevation dominates flood susceptibility, whereas landslide susceptibility is jointly controlled by topographic and hydrological factors. These findings provide valuable insights for disaster risk reduction and land-use planning in tropical regions.
关键词
Flood-landslide compound hazards,Susceptibility mapping,XGBoost-SHAP model
报告人
Xin LI
Harbin Institute of Technology (shenzhen)

稿件作者
Xin Li Harbin Institute of Technology (Shenzhen)
Jinhui Li Harbin Institute of Technology (Shenzhen)
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重要日期
  • 会议日期

    08月09日

    2026

    08月13日

    2026

  • 08月06日 2026

    初稿截稿日期

  • 08月12日 2026

    注册截止日期

主办单位
The Hong Kong Polytechnic University
承办单位
International Consortium on Geo-disaster Reduction (ICGdR)
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