66 / 2016-04-07 18:09:55

Analysis of stock market based on cellular automata

9741,9742,9743,9744

Abstract . In this paper, a new cellular-automata-based stock market model is constructed. Differing from the previous models, this model takes amount of investors’ capital, the important factor, as a normally distributed random variable, into account. By combining with the characteristics of the current stock market and classifying the market investors, a random process to divide risk preferences is introduced, and two corresponding trading strategies are presented to more effectively simulate the real stock market. Through simulation study, it is deduced that the excessive speculation of in-vestors is the critical factor of sharp fluctuations in the stock market, which is not conducive to the return of the fair value of the stock. At the same time, the average yields of the two investor types are compared, and it is concluded that there is no long-term investment value in current China's stock market and appropriate short-term investment can improve the return on investment.